Our September 2015 TREB Stats and Commentary

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In an effort to assist our realtors and clients gain further insight into the Toronto real estate market, we have accumulated a database of TREB results on a monthly basis for the past 10 years (sales, avg price, new listings & active listings).  The attached document below provides our data based commentary on the month […]

Rebalanced Canadian Economy Supports Healthy Real Estate Markets Across the Country

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In the third quarter of 2015, home prices showed moderate to strong year-over-year increases in most markets in Canada, according to the Royal LePage House Price Survey¹ released today.  While the effects of the crude oil shock are still filtering through the economy, the country’s non-energy sectors are beginning to regain momentum as a lower Canadian dollar stimulates sharply higher exports, particularly to the U.S., supporting overall consumer confidence and the strength of Canada’s real estate markets.

According to the report and newly introduced Royal LePage National House Price Composite, comprising house values in 53 of the nation’s largest real estate markets, the price² of a home in Canada increased 8.0 per cent year-over-year to $502,643 in the third quarter. The price of a two-storey home rose 9.9 percent year-over-year to $615,304, and the price of a bungalow increased 6.8 per cent to $421,757. During the same period, the price of a condominium increased 2.7 per cent to $338,945.

“Economic slowdowns in energy-dependent markets, most notably in western Canada, have in part been offset by both renewed industrial activity in other parts of the country and the Bank of Canada’s recent interest rate cuts,” said Phil Soper, chief executive officer, Royal LePage. “In line with recent quarters, strong national home price increases are largely being driven by continued double-digit percentage increases in the Greater Toronto Area and Greater Vancouver, where housing affordability is already becoming a growing challenge for many individuals and families.”

“Unlike the economic results seen in recent years, 2015 has been positive for Ontario, resulting in strong consumer confidence and increased housing market activity,” continued Soper. “The strength of the U.S. economy coupled with a lower Canadian dollar has greatly increased sales in Ontario’s manufacturing and services export industries.  Domestically, rising economic fortunes, underpinned in part by higher residential real estate values, provide consumer-driven support for a wide range of industries, from financial services to the auto sector, further sustaining economic momentum and housing demand in a number of Ontario regions.”

In the third quarter, Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home prices saw an aggregate year-over-year increase of 11.3 per cent across housing types surveyed, to a price of $612,261, while the price of a home in the City of Toronto climbed 11.2 per cent to $639,970.  In a few cases, house prices in Toronto’s suburbs are outpacing those in central parts of the city.  During the quarter, the median price of a standard two-storey home in Richmond Hill and Vaughan increased 18.6 per cent year-over-year to $963,561 and 18.0 per cent to $842,173, respectively, while the price in Toronto rose 17.1 per cent to $961,656.

“As homes in legacy central Toronto neighbourhoods move increasingly out of reach, we are observing that the more affordable areas in Southern Ontario, including the GTA suburbs, are experiencing substantial price appreciation and heightened sales activity levels,” said Soper.

Over the same period, British Columbia’s Lower Mainland region continued to see exceptional house price increases, with the price of a home in Greater Vancouver rising 12.9 per cent year-over-year to $928,532.  As with Toronto, house price increases in some surrounding areas outpaced those in the city core.  A notable difference is that these prices are now in excess of $1,000,000.  The median price of two-storey homes in the cities of Richmond and Burnaby saw year-over-year increases of 23.5 per cent to $1,200,462 and 20.9 per cent to 1,184,385, respectively, while the price of a two-storey home in the City of Vancouver increased 17.3 per cent to $1,925,491.  Meanwhile, the median price of a standard two-storey home in North and West Vancouver increased to $1,267,113, and $2,775,782, respectively.

“Overall, economic growth in British Columbia, in conjunction with migration into the province, continues to drive local housing activity. We expect this to continue through the balance of 2015,” said Soper.  “Interestingly, so far in 2015, Vancouver job growth has not kept up with the leading regions of the country, which is at odds with the level at which its housing market is appreciating.  This disconnect could reflect an inflow of retired homebuyers, but it also lends some credibility to the argument that housing in this market is being influenced by international buyer activity.”

After years of outpacing the rest of the country, Regina and St. John’s home price increases are now firmly below the national average, but are remaining stable.  Calgary and Edmonton’s housing markets continue to hold firm, maintaining stability amid continued economic uncertainty.  Regions in Atlantic Canada are showing mixed results, with a clear exception in Halifax which is showing healthy year-over-year price increases in most housing categories surveyed.  Meanwhile, balance appears to be returning to major Quebec housing markets, as the lower Canadian dollar supports the province’s manufacturing and export sectors.

“Home ownership remains a bright light amid unsettled investment and savings options in volatile global capital markets.  As we lead up to election day, it’s not surprising that all of the major political parties are acknowledging the housing sector’s prominence as the foundation on which the economy has been built for years, and a critical foundation upon which Canadians can build their savings,” concluded Soper.

Beginning this quarter, Royal LePage’s House Price Survey includes the Royal LePage National House Price Composite comprising house values for 53 of the nation’s largest real estate markets through the use of a proprietary, custom-built system that analyzes a housing database containing millions of real estate transactions. The enhancements are made possible through Royal LePage’s collaboration with its sister company, Brookfield RPS, a leader in residential real estate data and analytics in Canada.

Summer Sizzle! Our August 2015 TREB Stats Commentary

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In an effort to assist our realtors and clients gain further insight into the Toronto real estate market, we have accumulated a database of TREB results on a monthly basis for the past 10 years (sales, avg price, new listings & active listings).  The attached document below provides our data based commentary on the month and year that was and projections/thoughts as we progress through 2015.

Should you have any questions, comments, or suggestions regarding the attached, please contact a member of the team or send an email to info@thelangteam.ca

Click here for – [The Lang Team – August 2015 TREB Stats/Commentary.pdf]

How much are homes in Toronto neighbourhoods?

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While your realtor is the most qualified and best source to determine how much homes are worth in Toronto neighbourhoods, the Globe in Mail provides a very “cool” tool to help you dream!

Click Here -> [click here to access the tool]

If you’d like to play around with this interactive tool, please click on the specific neighbourhood to find current and historic stats by neighbourhood such as:

  • Average Price
  • Previous Year’s Average price for the same period
  • Average sale price as a percentage of list
  • Days on market

BofC Maintains Overnight Rate Target at 3/4 Percent

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Please find below the Bank of Canada’s press release regarding their decision to keep the overnight rate at 3/4 of a percentage — in line with what most economists expected:

“The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 3/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/2 per cent.

Inflation in Canada continues to track the path outlined in the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Total CPI inflation is near the bottom of the Bank’s 1 to 3 per cent inflation control range, largely due to the transitory effects of sharply lower energy prices. Core inflation remains above 2 per cent, boosted by the pass-through effects of past depreciation of the Canadian dollar, as well as certain sector-specific factors. Seeing through the various temporary factors, the Bank estimates that the underlying trend of inflation is 1.6 to 1.8 per cent, consistent with persistent slack in the economy.

The outlook for the Canadian economy also remains largely in line with the April MPR. While a weak first quarter in the United States has raised questions about that economy’s underlying strength, the Bank expects a return to solid growth in the second quarter. This will help advance the rotation of demand in Canada toward more exports and business investment. Recent indicators suggest consumption in Canada is holding up relatively well, given the impact of lower oil prices on gross domestic income.

Despite the recent back-up in global bond yields, financial conditions for Canadian households and firms remain highly stimulative. The Canadian dollar has strengthened in recent weeks in the context of higher oil prices and a softer U.S. dollar. If these developments are sustained, their net effect will need to be assessed as more data become available in the months ahead.

Although a number of complex adjustments are under way, the Bank’s assessment of risks to the inflation profile has not materially changed. Risks to financial stability remain elevated, but appear to be evolving as expected. Weighing all of these risks, the Bank judges that the current degree of monetary policy stimulus remains appropriate and therefore the target for the overnight rate remains at 3/4 per cent.”

Housing Markets Expected to Remain Stable Says CMHC

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According to CMHC’s second quarter 2015 Housing Market Outlook, Canada Edition1, housing markets will remain stable with housing starts moderating slightly in 2015 and 2016. There are, however, a number of risks and vulnerabilities that can affect the market outlook for Canada and each province. To account for these risks and vulnerabilities, CMHC produces forecast ranges for resale and new home markets.

“Lower oil prices are contributing to disparities between provincial housing markets. A slowdown in housing starts and resale transactions in oil-producing provinces such as Alberta will be partly offset by increased housing market activity in other provinces, such as Ontario and British Columbia, which benefit from the positive impacts of declining energy prices, a lower Canadian dollar and continued low mortgage rates,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist for CMHC.

“Moreover, since the inventory of completed and unabsorbed units remains above the historical average, we expect the pace of new home construction to moderate over the next couple of years as builders focus on managing the existing inventory,” added Mr. Dugan.

On an annual basis, housing starts are expected to range between 166,540 and 188,580 units in 2015, with a point forecast of 181,618 units. For 2016, housing starts are forecast to range from 162,840 units to 190,830 units, with a point forecast of 181,800 units.

MLS®2 sales are expected to range between 437,100 and 494,500 units in 2015, with a point forecast of 475,400 units. In 2016, MLS® sales are forecast to range from 424,500 units to 491,300 units, with a point forecast of 469,000 units.

The average MLS® price is forecast to be between $402,139 and $439,589 in 2015, with a point forecast of $422,129. For 2016, the average MLS® price is forecast to be between $398,191 and $457,200, with a point forecast of $428,325. The gradual slowdown in the rate of price growth is explained by the expected change in the composition of MLS® sales toward more moderately priced homes. Due to the recent decline in oil prices, our assessment is that there is more downside risk than upside risk to our forecast.

CMHC Housing Market Outlook and other market analysis reports are available for download at http://www.cmhc.ca/housingmarketinformation.

Does everyone keep a household budget?

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Do you have a household budget?  Do you know how much you’ll need to save to maintain your lifestyle in retirement?  Do you know how to get your credit report?

If you don’t consider yourself particularly money-savvy, you’re not alone. Nearly two-thirds of Canadians taking part in the 2014 Canadian Financial Capability Survey (CFCS) rate their own financial knowledge as poor.

The CFCS tests people’s financial know-how in five basic areas: keeping track, making ends meet, planning, staying informed and choosing products. The 2014 survey found that fewer than half of Canadians bother to take the most important first step in personal financial management—making a household budget. In fact, the number of people who do has gone down since 2009.

While almost 70 percent of those surveyed said they have no problem keeping up with their bills, three in 10 struggle to make their regular payments, and six in 10 do not know how much money they’ll need to save for retirement.

There is some good news however: More parents are saving for their children’s post-secondary education today than five years ago, while the number of new immigrants who use TFSAs rose from 13 percent to 33 percent.

According to Financial Literacy Leader, Jane Rooney, “The lack of financial knowledge continues to be a problem. Statistics show Canadian households are dealing with record levels of debt and with chronically low rates of saving.”

Those interested in measuring their own financial literacy can use a self-assessment quiz on the website of the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada: ItPaysToKnow.gc.ca. The quiz shows the user’s strength or weakness in each of the five key areas, and compares the results to those of other Canadians.

Also on the site is the portal to the Canadian Financial Literacy Database, which will guide you to resources and tools to improve your knowledge about money.

www.newscanada.com

Condos on the Move! Our March 2015 TREB Stats Commentary

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In an effort to assist our realtors and clients gain further insight into the Toronto real estate market, we have accumulated a database of TREB results on a monthly basis for the past 10 years (sales, avg price, new listings & active listings).  The attached document below provides our data based commentary on the month and year that was and projections/thoughts as we progress through 2015.

Should you have any questions, comments, or suggestions regarding the attached, please contact a member of the team or send an email to info@thelangteam.ca

Click here for – [The Lang Team – March 2015 TREB Stats/Commentary.pdf]

One Million Dollars! Our Feb 2015 TREB Stats Commentary

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In an effort to assist our realtors and clients gain further insight into the Toronto real estate market, we have accumulated a database of TREB results on a monthly basis for the past 10 years (sales, avg price, new listings & active listings).  The attached document below provides our data based commentary on the month and year that was and projections/thoughts as we progress through 2015.

Should you have any questions, comments, or suggestions regarding the attached, please contact a member of the team or send an email to info@thelangteam.ca

[The Lang Team – 2015 TREB Stats/Commentary.pdf]

A Glimmer of Hope for Buyers? Our Jan 2015 TREB Stats Commentary

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In an effort to assist our realtors and clients gain further insight into the Toronto real estate market, we have accumulated a database of TREB results on a monthly basis for the past 10 years (sales, avg price, new listings & active listings).  The attached document below provides our data based commentary on the month and year that was and projections/thoughts as we progress through 2015.

Should you have any questions, comments, or suggestions regarding the attached, please contact a member of the team or send an email to info@thelangteam.ca

[The Lang Team – 2015 TREB Stats/Commentary.pdf]