2016 Year End TREB Stats and Commentary

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In an effort to assist our realtors and clients gain further insight into the Toronto real estate market, we have accumulated a database of TREB results on a monthly basis for the past 10 years (sales, avg price, new listings & active listings).  The attached pdf provides our month over month, year over year, and 5 and 10 year data comparisons.

Should you have any questions, comments, or suggestions regarding the attached, please contact a member of the team or send an email to hello@outline.ca

PDF Report-> 12-2016 – TREB Month of and Full Year Stats – Outline Financial (Formerly – The Lang Team)

Summary as follows*:

Month of December –

  • MLS Sales Volumes: up 8.6% vs. previous December, +23.8% vs. previous 5 year December average and +24.0% vs. previous 10 year December average
  • Average Price: up 20% vs. the previous December, +10.2% compounded annually over the past 5 Decembers, and +8.1% compounded annually over the past 10 Decembers.
  • New Listings: Down 11.7% vs. previous December, -5.9% vs. past 5 year December average and -11.3% vs. previous 10 year December average
  • Active Listings (standing supply available to realtors at the end of December): Down 48.1% vs. previous December, -58.3% vs. past 5 year December average and -62.5% vs. previous 10 year December average.

Full Year 2016 –

MLS Sales Volume: up 11.8% vs. previous year (new record at 113,133 sales for the year), +24% vs. previous 5-year average and +29% vs. previous 10-year average

  • Condos led the way with year over year sales volume growth of +21%.
  • A relative increase in 905 sales volume vs. 416 sales volume in the low-rise detached/semi/town-house category signaled a trend of people looking outside the Toronto core to find available low rise-supply at a lower price point.  (i.e., detached homes sales volume up 4% in 416, up 14% in 905).

MLS Average Price: up 17.3% vs. previous year ($730,000 average across 416/905 all property types).  Up 9.4% compounded annually over the past 5 years, up 7.6% compounded annually over the past 10 years.

  • Low rise leading the way with detached up 21% year over year, Semi-detached up 16% year over year, and Townhouses up 17% year over year.  Condos also showed resilience posting a +10% year over year average price growth.
    905 average prices rising slightly quicker than 416.  Still a significant gap in average price, but if trend continues, this gap will start closing over time.

New Listings: Down 3.5% vs. previous year, -0.6% vs. past 5 year average and -0.3% vs. previous 10 year average

  • While new listings were only down slightly vs. the historical average, the “velocity” of sales changes drastically.  Given significant pent up demand in the market, sales occur much faster resulting in more transaction each month, and a lower standing inventory of active listings.

Active Listings (standing supply available to realtors at the end of 2016): Down 30.3% vs. previous year, -37.5% vs. past 5-year average, and -43.6% vs. past 10-year average.

  • To put this in perspective, as at the end of Dec 2016, there were 4,746 active listings available on MLS.  Given the 10-year average of active listings is 12,672 at the same point in time, you can see we are in an extremely tight market with supply unable to keep up with demand pushing average price up quickly.
  • Please refer to “Demand Band” graph for visual representation of this demand/supply balance.

*Please note that all raw data is sourced from the monthly TREB Market Watch report. The Lang Team has compiled this data and created the attached graphs/charts, etc.  Should TREB make changes/revisions to their historical data, The Lang Team will update the files/graphs accordingly. If detailed change data is not available or immaterial, then the monthly figures presented will match to the TREB Market Watch report as originally published in any given month, and any year over year/monthly comparison figures will be based upon those numbers.

 

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